9/12/2020 : Playoff Likelihood
The Phillies certainly have been anything but consistent this season but still presently stand at 22-20 with 18 games left to play. There are 8 qualifying spots this year for the playoffs which means the Phillies have a current magic number of 16 to qualify for a spot. The “Magic Number” is the total number of wins or losses it would take for the Phillies and the closest trailing team in the playoff chase ( in this case the Rockies ) to mathematically eliminate any chances of the trailing club from reaching the playoffs.
The current “Magic Number” to secure second place in the Eastern Division is 19.
So ... if the Phillies play just .500 baseball the rest of the way the Rockies can’t afford to lose 7 of their remaining 16 games ... the Marlins wouldn’t be able to lose more than 9 more games in that scenario to garner second place in the NL East.
According to the site Fan Graphs the Phillies have an 84.4 % chance of making the playoffs as of today with a 49.7 % chance of finishing second in the NL East and a 16.4 % chance of winning the division. They project 30 wins as the likely number it will take to qualify for this year’s NL playoffs as a wildcard team.
The earlier streak of winning 10 out of 11 games certainly pushed the Phillies into an advantageous position ... if they can avoid a prolonged losing tailspin in the remaining 18 games then it’s very likely the club reaches the post season for the first time since 2011.
Of course we would like them to play far better than .500 the rest of the way ... another long winning streak would be great !
Just sayin ... unless ya are a real defeatist our club should get to the post season and once there anything is possible ... last year’s champions the Washington Nationals proved that ...
Happy Day, Happy Baseball ⚾️