12/13/21 : When to Promote 🤷‍♂️🧐

The player development process in baseball doesn’t have set parameters on the length of time it takes to for a player to reach the major leagues. It’s primarily a subjective process dependent on the individual player, especially in years past. With the advent of advanced statistical analysis it’s likely become more objective, one not necessarily predicated by traditional stats like batting average, ERA, OPS, etc. but reinforced by other performance measurements such as hard contact rate, exit velocity, etc. One thing that’s consistent in either regard is that an individual’s success is generally indicated by their opponent’s failure to succeed - to me it’s still the truest measure of when a player is ready to promote.

It’s especially difficult to decide on same season promotions.

Some believe in the experience factor, that a player shouldn’t be moved to the next level prior to X number of AB’s or Y number of innings pitched, I personally value experience as the greatest educator but also realize that the level of competitive challenge is very telling, e.g. there’s perhaps not a great deal of value added in repetition if the competition is consistently being outperformed.

With that in mind here’s a look at some recent and past Phillies minor league players who’ve experienced within the same season promotions and their “traditional” stats at the time …

Hitters : stats shown are at time of promotion at the level of play prior to promotion unless otherwise noted

2021 :

Bryson Stott - 6/1/21 - Jersey Shore to Reading - 22 games - 73 AB’s - .288 BA, .453 OBP … 9/22/21 - Reading to LHV - 80 games - 322 AB’s - .312 BA, .368 OBP - has played in 160 minor league games

Logan O’Hoppe - 8/25/21 - Jersey Shore to Reading - 85 games - 318 AB’s - .270 BA, .335 OBP … 9/22/21 - Reading to LHV - 13 games - 54 AB’s - .296 BA, .333 OBP - has played in 183 minor league games

Luis Garcia - 9/2/21 - Clearwater to Jersey Shore - 87 games - 333 AB’s - .246 BA, .356 OBP - hit .309 in 81 AB’s in August with a .378 OBP - has played in 273 minor league games

Johan Rojas - 9/2/21 - Clearwater to Jersey Shore - 78 games - 313 AB’s - .240 BA, .305 OBP - excelled at JS - 17 games - 64 AB’s - .344 BA, .419 OBP - has played in 224 minor league games

DJ Stewart - 6/9/21 - Clearwater to Jersey Shore - 17 games - 68 AB’s - .353 BA, .413 OBP - solid at JS - 77 games - 290 AB’s - .245 BA,.307 OBP - 11 HR, 42 RBIs - has played in 185 minor league games

Daniel Brito - 7/22/21 - Reading to LHV - 63 games - 247 AB’s - .296 BA, .363 OBP - in 8 games with LHV in 28 AB’s - .286 BA, .375 OBP - has played in 512 minor league games

Matt Vierling - 6/15/21 - Reading to LHV - 24 games - 87 AB’s - .345 BA, .422 OBP - 6/19/21 - LHV to Philadelphia - 12 AB’s - 5 hits - optioned & recalled twice thereafter - played 208 minor league games before major league debut

Prior Years :

Darick Hall - 8/29/17 - Lakewood to Clearwater - 114 games - 426 AB’s - .272 BA, .340 OBP - 27 HR, 96 RBIs - won the South Atlantic League league MVP Award … 6/1/18 - Clearwater to Reading - 48 games - 173 AB’s - .277 BA, .367 OBP - 11 HR, 35 RBIs - has played in 558 minor league games

Alec Bohm - 4/30/19 - Lakewood to Clearwater - 22 games - 79 AB’s - .367 BA, .441 OBP - 3 HR, 11 RBIs - 6/21/19 - Clearwater to Reading - 40 games - 158 AB’s - .329 BA, .395 OBP - 4 HR, 27 RBIs - finished the season with Reading - 63 games - 238 AB’s - .269 BA, .344 OBP - 14 HR, 42 RBIs … made major league debut 8/13/20 - promoted from Alternate Training site w/o AAA game experience - played 155 minor league games before major league debut

Ryan Howard - 7/31/04 - Reading to Scranton Wilkes Barre - 102 games - 374 AB’s - .297 BA, .386 OBP - 37 HR, 102 RBIs - won the Eastern League MVP Award - played 29 more games at SWB - 111 AB’s - .270 BA, .362 OBP - 9 HR, 29 RBIs - made MLB debut in September … 5/3/05 - SWB to Philadelphia - 61 games - 210 AB’s - .371 BA, .467 OBP, 16 HR, 54 RBIs 😳 - played 505 minor league games before major league debut

Scott Kingery - 7/25/16 - Clearwater to Reading - 94 games - 375 AB’s - .293 BA, .360 OBP - played in 37 games at Reading - 150 AB’s - .250 BA, .273 OBP … 6/26/17 - Reading to Lehigh Valley - 69 games - 278 AB’s - .313 BA, .379 OBP - 18 HR, 44 RBIs - played in 63 games at LHV - 265 AB’s - .294 BA, .337 OBP - 8 HR, 21 RBIs - broke Spring Training Camp with the Phillies on 3/25/18 - played 329 minor league games before major league debut

Rhys Hoskins - 6/25/15 - Lakewood to Clearwater - 68 games - 255 AB’s - .322 BA, .397 OBP, 9 HR, 51 RBIs - played 67 games at CW - 243 AB’s - .317 BA, .394 OBP, 8 HR, 39 RBIs - spent entire 2016 season at Reading - 135 games - 498 AB’s - .281 BA, .377 OBP - 38 HR, 116 RBIs … 8/10/17 - Lehigh Valley to Philadelphia - 115 games - 401 AB’s - .284 BA, .385 OBP - 29 HR, 91 RBIs - won the International League MVP Award - played 455 minor league games before major league debut

Jimmy Rollins - 1999 - Reading to Scranton Wilkes Barre - 133 games - 532 AB’s - .273 BA, .336 OBP - 11 HR, 56 RBIs - played 4 games ( 13 AB’s ) at SWB and the 2000 season - 133 games - 470 AB’s - .274 BA, .341 OBP - 12 HR, 69 RBIs - made big league debut 9/17/00 - played 444 minor league games before major league debut

Chase Utley - broke ST camp with Phillies in 2003 - 4/29/03 optioned to SWB after 6 games - 15 AB’s - .200 BA, .200 OBP - returned to big leagues 8/14/03 after playing in 113 games with Scranton Wilkes Barre - 431 AB’s - .323 BA, .390 OBP - 18 HR, 77 RBIs … 5/8/04 - Scranton Wilkes Barre to Philadelphia - 33 games - 123 AB’s - .285 BA, .363 OBP - 6 HR, 25 RBIs - played the balance of the 2004 season with the Phillies - 94 games - .260 BA, .308 OBP - 13 HR, 54 RBIs - played 287 minor league games before major league debut

Darrin Ruf - 5/13/10 - Lakewood to Clearwater - 32 games - 115 AB’s - .330 BA, .443 OBP - 4 HR, 17 RBIs - spent rest of season with Clearwater - 97 games - 368 AB’s - .277 BA, .335 OBP - 5 HR 50 RBIs and all of 2011 … 2012 with Reading - Eastern League MVP - 139 games - 489 AB’s - .317 BA, .408 OBP - 38 HR, 104 RBIs - promoted to big leagues 9/10/12 - played in 12 games - 33 AB’s - .333 BA, .351 OBP - 3 HR, 10 RBIs - started 2013 with Lehigh Valley - 83 games - 305 AB’s - .266 BA, .343 OBP - 7 HR, 46 RBIs - promoted to Philadelphia 7/6/13 - played 458 minor league games before major league debut

Juan Samuel -1983 - Reading to Portland - 47 games - 184 AB’s - .234 BA, .267 OBP - 11 HR, 39 RBIs, 19 Stolen Bases - played 65 games at AAA Portland - 261 AB’s - .330 BA, .388 OBP - 15 HR, 52 RBIs, 33 stolen bases - made major league debut 8/24/83 - 18 games - 65 AB’s - .277 BA, .344 OBP with the Phillies in 1983 - played 453 minor league games before major league debut.

Mike Schmidt - 1972 - AAA Eugene to Philadelphia - 131 games - 436 AB’s - .291 BA, .409 OBP - 26 HR, 91 RBIs - made major league debut 9/12/72 - 13 games - 34 AB’s - .206 BA, .325 OBP - played 205 minor league games before major league debut

Dick Allen - 1963 - AAA Arkansas to Philadelphia - 145 games - 544 AB’s - .289 BA, .341 OBP - 33 HR, 97 RBIs - major league debut 9/3/63 - played in 10 games with ‘63 Phillies - 24 AB’s - .292 BA - played 482 minor league games before major league debut

……………………..

Pitchers :

2021 :

Josh Hendrickson - 6/8/21 - Jersey Shore to Reading - 19 2/3 IP - 0.86 WHIP, 2.75 ERA - at Reading pitched 71 2/3 IP - 1.17 WHIP, 3.64 ERA - finished season with Lehigh Valley after 9/14/21 promotion. - Has pitched in 37 minor league games - 132 2/3 IP

Adam Leverett - 7/17/21 - Jersey Shore to Reading - 11 games - 40 1/3 IP - 0.92 WHIP, 1.56 ERA - pitched in 8 games with Reading - 36 IP, 5.50 ERA, 1.42 WHIP - also pitched in 2 games with Lehigh Valley - Has pitched in 23 minor league games - 117 1/3 IP

Victor Vargas - 7/31/21 - Clearwater to Jersey Shore - 13 games - 49 2/3 IP - 3.62 ERA, 1.23 WHIP - pitched 8 games - 32 2/3 IP @ Jersey Shore & 1 game - 5 IP @ Lehigh Valley - Has pitched in 43 minor league games - 172 IP

Jack Perkins - 6/12/21 - Jersey Shore to Reading - 5 games - 16 1/3 IP, 5.51 ERA, 1.22 WHIP - pitched 12 games - 59 1/3 IP, 4.25 ERA & 1.38 WHIP @ Reading - 8/24/21 - Reading to Lehigh Valley - 6 games - 25 IP - 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP @ LHV - Has pitched in 43 minor league games - 160 IP

Erubiel Armenta - 7/10/21 - Clearwater to Jersey Shore - 4 games - 6 2/3 IP - 0.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP - 9/7/21 - Jersey Shore to Reading - pitched 11 games @ JS - 14 1/3 IP, 3.14 ERA, 1.53 WHIP - 1 game with Reading - 2 IP - 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP - Has pitched in 16 minor league games - 23 IP

Blake Brown - 9/7/21 - Jersey Shore to Reading - 33 games - 40 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.40 WHIP - pitched 1 game with Reading - 1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP - Has pitched in 34 minor league games - 41 IP

Mike Adams - 6/25/21 - Jersey Shore to Lehigh Valley - 14 games - 10 2/3 IP, 7.59 ERA, 2.16 WHIP - @ LHV - 30 games - 37 IP, 3.65 ERA, 1.46 WHIP - Has pitched in 44 minor league games - 47 2/3 IP

Billy Sullivan - 5/21/21 - Jersey Shore to Reading - 5 games - 5 2/3 IP, 1.59 ERA, 0.71 WHIP - @ Reading - 15 games - 18 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP - Has pitched in 20 minor league games - 23 2/3 IP

Braden Zarbniksy - 5/15/21 - Jersey Shore to Reading - 3 games - 5 1/3 IP, 1.69 ERA, 1.69 WHIP - 7/22/21 - Reading to Lehigh Valley - 19 games - 30 1/3 IP, 3.26 ERA, 0.86 WHIP - pitched 8 games at LHV - 13 2/3 IP - 1.24 WHIP - Has pitched in 30 minor league games - 49 1/3 IP

Prior Years :

RHP Aaron Nola - 6/14/15 - Reading to Lehigh Valley - 12 games - 76 2/3 IP - 0.89 WHIP, 1.88 ERA - 32 2/3 IP at LHV - 6 games - 1.44 WHIP, 3.58 ERA - promoted to Phillies 7/21/15 - pitched in 30 minor league games prior to MLB debut - 164 2/3 IP

Damon Jones - 6/16/19 - Clearwater to Reading - 58 1/3 IP - 1.06 WHIP, 1.54 ERA -- 22 IP at Reading - 0.82 WHIP and 0.82 ERA - promoted to LHV 7/11/19 - has pitched in 93 minor league games - 295 IP - made major league debut - 8/10/21

Cole Irvin - 6/28/17 - Clearwater to Reading - - 67 IP - 1.22 WHIP, 2.55 ERA - - 84 1/3 IP at Reading - spent next two seasons with LHV - made MLB debut 5/12/19 -had pitched in 67 minor league games - 395 1/3 IP prior to MLB debut - now part of Oakland A’s starting rotation

Ranger Suarez - 7/4/17 - Lakewood to Clearwater - 85 IP - 0.89 WHIP, 1.59 ERA - at Clearwater - 37 2/3 IP - 1.43 WHIP, 3.82 ERA … 6/26/18 - Reading to Lehigh Valley - 75 IP - 1.12 WHIP, 2.76 ERA - at LHV - 49 1/3 IP - 1.28 WHIP, 2.74 ERA - made MLB debut 7/26/18 - had pitched in 81 minor league games - 418 1/3 IP prior to MLB debut

Cole Hamels - 2003 - Lakewood to Clearwater - 74 2/3 IP - 0.76 WHIP, 0.84 ERA - at Clearwater - 26 1/3 IP, 1.63 WHIP, 2.73 ERA … injuries limited him in 2004 & 2005 to 10 games - 51 IP … 2006 - pitched 8 games at Lakewood/Clearwater/SWB - 49 IP - 0.84 WHIP, 1.10 ERA - made MLB debut 5/12/06 - had pitched in 36 minor league games - 201 IP prior to MLB debut

Connor Brogdon - 5/9/19 - Clearwater to Reading - 10 games - 20 IP, 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP - 6/28/19 - Reading to Lehigh Valley - 15 games - 23 2/3 IP - 2.66 ERA, 0.80 WHIP - 26 games at LHV to finish season - 32 1/3 IP, 3.06 ERA, 1.08 WHIP - promoted to major leagues - 8/11/20 - had pitched in 98 minor league games - 180 IP prior to MLB debut

Ken Giles - 7/29/12 - Lakewood to Clearwater - 29 games - 67 1/3 IP - 3.61 ERA, 1.46 WHIP - 10 games at CW - 14 2/3 IP - 10 games - 1.09 WHIP, 3.07 ERA - spent all of 2013 at Clearwater - 5/9/14 - Reading to Lehigh Valley - 13 games - 15 IP, 1.20 ERA, 0.87 WHIP - 6/8/14 - Lehigh Valley to Philadelphia - 11 games - 13 2/3 IP - 2.63 ERA, 1.32 WHIP - made MLB debut 6/12/14 - had pitched in 90 minor league games - 141 IP prior to MLB debut

Ricky Bottalico - 1994 - Reading to Scranton Wilkes Barre - 38 games - 42 2/3 IP, 2.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP … SWB to Philadelphia - 19 games - 22 1/3 IP - 8.87 ERA, 2.42 WHIP - made MLB debut 7/29/94 - had pitched in 171 minor league games - 324 1/3 IP prior to MLB debut

Seranthony Dominguez - 4/27/18 - Reading to Lehigh Valley - 8 games - 13 IP, 2.08 ERA, 0.77 WHIP - 5/7/18 - Lehigh Valley to Philadelphia - 3 games - 3 2/3 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.27 WHIP - MLB debut - 5/7/18 - had pitched in 86 minor league games - 326 2/3 IP prior to MLB debut

Hector Neris - 4/12/14 - Reading to Lehigh Valley - 11 games - 19 1/3 IP - 1.86 ERA, 1.14 WHIP - 8/3/14 - Lehigh Valley to Philadelphia - had pitched in 20 games @ LHV - returned after MLB debut 8/5/14 - one game in MLB - finished season with LHV - 37 games total - 58 IP, 4.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP … 7/8/15 - Lehigh Valley to Philadelphia - 27 games - 37 1/3 IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.66 WHIP -had pitched in 221 minor league games - 391 IP prior to 2015 MLB call up

Just some numbers to ponder the next time we wonder out loud about “bring him up” 🧐🤓

Happy Day, Happy Baseball ⚾️