5/19/26 : Just Sayin 🧐

Mr. Dombrowski has been quoted as saying that the earliest a realistic evaluation of a major league team can be made is after approximately 40 games - about a quarter of the season. The Phillies currently stand at 25-23 - for each of the past four seasons they’ve been a playoff team - in 2022 after 47 games they were 21-27 (that team eventually won 87 games and went to the World Series), in 2023 they were 22-26 (that team eventually won 90 games), in 2024 they were a stellar 34-14 (went on to win 95 games) and last season 30-18 (that team won 96 games). This year in April in games against the Cubs and Braves they went 2-11 - those two teams were sizzling hot at the time and are both off to great overall starts with a combined 61-35 record - the Phillies against their other opponents to date are 23-12 - so which is the true team identity? 🤔

To me they were a playoff contender when they broke spring camp and remain so today - identity being that they are prone to hot and cold offensive streaks - can mash when hot yet be frustrating to watch when not, lack in consistent bat to ball skills, probably rely on the long ball too much and generally have very strong pitching (the core of the team’s strength being the rotation and bullpen backend) - the defense wanes at times in both range and making plays but can be spectacular on occasion. A realistic evaluation in my mind is that they are capable of earning a playoff berth at year end and can make a championship run if they are “hot” when it’s tournament time. That’s generally how it’s worked in the expanded playoff format.  By the way, say what you want about Alec Bohm’s slow season start however his defense has been steady and even spectacular as of late - the young man deserves credit for that and the fact that he’s persevered thru some tough personal times - his offensive output has also picked up since a rough beginning, fellow “Day Care” alums Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott have also stepped up to projected potential  - just sayin - they all deserve some Philly love.

The minor leagues full season squads are also now a bit beyond the quarter mark of their season, in fact closer to a third of the way  - while wins and losses aren’t the primary measurement in player development building skills inclusive of competitive mindsets surely is. Here’s a look at some fellas that have made “good noise” thus far this year. As Mr. D has said there is talent that can be tapped either in promotion or trade. I can profile em all but that’s what I do in November - just sayin 🤓.

Lehigh Valley :

Christian Cairo - the 24 year old right handed hitter is on the 40 man roster. He’s seen the majority of his defensive time at shortstop (21 games), third base (13 games) and left field (11 games). Christian has been an on-base machine posting a .425 OBP in 194 plate appearances drawing 35 walks and recording 42 hits (.276 BA in 152 AB’s). His defensive versatility and ability to get on base are assets which could propel him to the majors at some point.

Steward Berroa - he’s also on the 40 man roster and is a 26 year old switch hitter who’s played 28 of his 30 games in center field for LHV. In his career he’s played all three outfield spots. Steward has recorded a .388 OBP in 131 PA’s since joining the Phillies organization via a trade with the Brewers on 4/8/26. He’s also shown some pop with 6 doubles, a triple and 4 home runs while swiping 8 bases in 10 attempts. Provisions outfield depth in center field if needed.

Alan Rangel - starting pitching depth is important to have over the long grind of a season - the 28 year old right hander is the “sixth starter” for the organization and has been solid as he bides his time with LHV - he’s posted a very respectable 2.74 ERA in 8 appearances (42.2 IP). Alan has the skillset to at the least temporarily fill in at the big league level if needed featuring a four seam fastball (92-96 mph), slider, change-up and curve.

Seth Johnson - he’s shuttled back and forth already to Philly making three big league appearances - at Lehigh Valley in 15 appearances (16 IP) the 27 year old has a 2.25 ERA with an impressive 28 K’s and just 5 walks - features a four seam fastball generally 95-98 mph, has touched 100, slider, splitter, curve. Plenty of interest in this right hander from other organizations if there’s not eventually a full time big league spot here.

Nolan Hoffman - the 28 year old sidearming right hander has also already been on the big league shuttle this season making two appearances. At LHV he’s been very good posting a 2.13 ERA in 11 appearances (12.2 IP) with 19 K’s and 5 walks - gets a ton of ground balls with his sinker which sits in the 93 to 95 mph range - also throws a curve, changeup and cutter.

Felix Reyes - the 25 year old corner infielder/outfielder got a taste of the big leagues appearing in 12 games and was just optioned back (5/18/26) to Lehigh Valley. The broader audience saw glimpses of how he can mash the baseball with strong bat to ball skills and high velocity impact. His BP sessions are spectacular, just ask those who watched him in Boston - just sayin. He’s also a very aggressive hitter who will need to harness his approach to be more selective in order to stick in the show. He will now continue to build on the stellar AAA level numbers he left when promoted on 4/18/26. He’s got a .333/.345/.654 slash line and .999 OPS in 84 PA’s with 8 doubles, 5 home runs and 15 RBIs - the young man can hit and will return to the bigs at some point.

Reading :

Alex Binelas - after being released by the Red Sox on 5/23/25 he signed a two year deal with the Phillies and has provided “veteran” stability at Reading to a relatively young position player group. The 25 year old lefty hitting corner infielder (primarily first base) has been a key run producer with 10 home runs and 30 RBIs posting a .295/.400/.598 slash line and .998 OPS in 135 PA’s. While he’s spent the brunt of his six year minor league career at the AA level don’t count him out from advancing - I remember another “veteran” lefty bat who propelled a solid season at Reading into a big league opportunity - Alex might just be the next Oliver Dunn.

Raylin Heredia - the 22 year old outfielder (primarily RF) has pop in his bat and has produced 16 doubles and 5 home runs in his first 154 plate appearances at Reading. Yes there’s swing and miss as he’s punched out 47 times (32%) but still has a respectable .276 BA in 145 AB’s. Raylin has worked hard to acclimate himself into the pro baseball lifestyle, he’s learned how to speak and write English very well and is a proud graduate of the Phillies education program. The Dominican native first caught our attention as a member of the DSL 2022 champion Phillies when he had a tremendous post season. The next year he dominated the FCL, there’s been some injuries and plate adjustments since - he had a solid summer last year in Jersey Shore, a good winter in Australia for league champion Adelaide and is now off to a good start in Reading. Is also solid as a defender with a plus arm.

Dante Nori - the 21 year old center fielder is playing at the AA level at an age two years younger than the league average but continues to show that he’s a developing big leaguer. He’s been good all season despite playing early on with a sore shoulder incurred while playing in the WBC. With 15 extra base hits (9 doubles, 4 triples and 2 home runs) and 63 total bases Dante has shown the ability to drive the baseball. He’s also a very good defender who’s smart, gets great reads, runs direct routes and has the speed to flag balls down. He’s just fun to watch play - continues to remind me distinctly of Lenny Dykstra from back in the day in the way he plays.

Bryan Rincon - the 22 year old has always shown glimpses of what he might become which is why every scout I’ve ever talked to about him has maintained an interest. He’s already capable of playing shortstop defensively in the show, thus far this season the offense has also clicked. In prior years he’s been hindered by injuries and the ongoing learning of approach and adjustments - fully healthy in spring camp he showed out to a broader audience and has continued to do so thus far this season at Reading. Bryan has posted a .276/.396/.535 slash line and .931 OPS in 154 PA’s with 8 doubles, 2 triples, 7 home runs, 15 stolen bases and 19 RBIs - he’s a switch hitter with better pop from the left side (all 7 HR’s are as a LH batter). The kid can play, that’s been evident all along - thus far it’s coming together this season in regard to statistical results.

Aroon Escobar - akin to Dante Nori, Aroon is playing at the AA level at 21 years of age and won’t turn 22 till next January placing him amongst the ten youngest players in the Eastern League. He plays with great enthusiasm and energy, has fun (this past week he attempted the hidden ball trick against an opponent on second base 🤓- he also has a great “Soto Shuffle” imitation at the dish).  Aroon is powerfully built and can drive the baseball a long way (a national pundit was flat out wrong in his observation of him in that regard this past week). Thus far he’s posted a respectable .262 batting average in 145 AB’s with 7 doubles, a triple, 3 home runs, 10 stolen bases and 25 RBIs. I like him more as a second baseman (has great hands and makes quick turns) but he’s seen time both there (21 games) and at third base (17 games). Has a big league skill set.

Alex McFarlane - the 24 year old fireballing right hander has been dominant thus far posting a 0.63 ERA in 15 appearances (14.1 IP) with 19 K’s and 7 walks - he’s consistently been in the upper nineties and has repeatedly touched 100 mph with his fastball. The mix is a high velocity sinking fastball and four seamer, slider and splitter - the type of stuff that can play in the show as a backend reliever. Tremendous personality to boot, he’s gonna pitch in the majors at some point.

Gage Wood - a power arsenal is the ticket for the intense 22 year old right hander. Gets after it and shows plenty of emotion on the hill - mid to upper nineties fastball, continues to develop secondaries (slider, cutter and change up) - just need to have patience for a fuller development - he certainly has big league skills but needs to build innings and strengthen approach and mix. The promotion to Reading (5/18/26) provisions a challenge to do that against more advanced hitters. He posted a 3.42 ERA in 8 starts (26.1 IP) with 40 K’s and 12 walks with Clearwater this spring.

Braydon Tucker - all the 26 year old right hander does is get batters out - he’s consistently done that through out his career. This season he has posted a 1.74 ERA in six starts (31 IP) with 32 K’s and 13 walks. Braydon throws from a three quarter arm slot and his sinker generally sits 90-95 mph, also has a split finger change up, cutter and slider. Gets after it, competes, throws strikes with strong command/control and hides the ball well with his delivery. He’s not a name mentioned often but he deserves to be - all he does is get batters out - just sayin.

Andrew Baker - the 26 year old right handed reliever had a rough spring training camp battling both control and command, he was hit hard in many of his outings. But he’s never wavered in his belief that he can succeed and has had a very solid start to his regular season, in fact it’s the strongest he’s pitched at the AA level. In 13 appearances he’s posted a 2.93 ERA in 15.1 IP with 23 strikeouts and only 4 walks - the control/command has been the best we’ve seen from him. His four seam fastball sits in the 94-98 mph range with a put-away slider and curve as secondaries along with a cutter. Big league stuff that if he continues to command it is a ticket to higher levels.

Jersey Shore :

Jose Colmenares - signed to a two year deal last summer (8/15/25) after being released by the Yankees the 24 year old shortstop has been a similar stabilizing influence at Jersey Shore akin to Alex Binelas in Reading. Jose has posted strong numbers (.283/.406/.425) to date in 31 games (138 PA’s) while being the everyday shortstop.

Reese Dutton - in seven appearances (five starts) the 25 year old right handed pitcher has recorded a 1.77 ERA in 35.2 IP with 29 K’s and 6 walks. He’s a strike thrower - is a sinker ball pitcher (88 to 91 mph - touches 93) with a slider, change-up, cutter and curve. Uses his pitch-ability to get outs.

Jose Peña Jr - the 22 year old right handed reliever has appeared in ten games (14 IP) with a 2.57 ERA - 19 K’s and 7 walks - in 8 of his 10 outings he has held opponents scoreless. He has a power curve/slider that is a swing and miss pitch - it is an out maker that compliments a 92-96 mph fastball.

Brandon Beckel - the 24 year old right hander has pitched the majority of his career as a multi inning reliever - he’s made 8 appearances and has a 3.05 ERA in 20.2 IP with a whopping 27 K’s against just four walks - has pitched very well - has a sharp darting slider that he keeps down in the zone, a pitch that’s heavy and is a ground ball maker. Decent fastball - 92-94 mph that has been up to 95.

Mavis Graves - he’s posted a 3.12 ERA in seven starts (26 IP) with 44 K’s and 9 walks - in three May starts the 22 year old lefty has a 1.50 ERA in 12 IP with 21 K’s and 5 walks - velo has picked up a bit this year - five pitch mix - four seam fastball, two seamer/sinker, cutter, curve ball (more of a sweeper), slider and a very good change up. Fastballs in the 92-95 mph range. He’s on the rise.

Keegan Batka - just promoted from Clearwater on 5/13/26 the 24 year old right hander was outstanding in his time with the Threshers posting a clean 0.00 ERA in 10 appearances (12.1 IP) with 18 K’s and 6 walks (0.89 WHIP) - he was signed as an un-drafted free agent on 7/22/25 from Davenport University - impressed in spring camp and carried that over into the regular season - features a 92-96 mph heater, slider, sinker and cutter. Has been used as a reliever to date - was a starter in college.

Notes - both Gabriel Rincones Jr and Estibenzon Jimenez continue their rehab assignments this week - they have been transferred from Clearwater. Rincones is a 25 year old outfielder (he’s on the 40 man roster) with a power lefty bat who eventually will work his way back to Lehigh Valley returning from knee issues while Jimenez is a 24 year old RH starting pitcher who was a solid part of the Reading rotation last summer and has the ability to continue up the ladder - “Jimmy” features a very good changeup, a four seam fastball that ranges from 92 to 97 mph along with a slider. He’s a strike thrower when he’s right - the young man is returning from back issues that sidelined him this spring. Two more to watch out for as they return to form.

Clearwater :

Alirio Ferrebus - the 20 year old right handed hitting catcher has had an outstanding season thus far with a whopping.366/.417/.585 slash line and 1.002 OPS in 139 plate appearances posting 12 doubles, 5 home runs and 33 RBIs in 33 games - he’s caught in 15 sharing duties behind the dish as is the Phillies customary development process for catchers. Alirio has thrown out 33% of the 21 attempted base stealers this season and has a career 25% mark, he’s got a strong arm albeit erratic at times and has the tools to continue to advance up the ladder as a catcher. It’s the offense that’s blossomed this year, he too (akin to Raylin Heredia) spent the off-season in Australia playing for the league champion Adelaide Giants.

Nolan Beltran - the 21 year old utility player (he’s played 1B,2B,SS, 3B and LF this season) has gotten off to the best start to a season in his brief career to date - he’s posted a .286/.411/.374 slash line with 5 doubles and 15 RBIs in 28 games (112 PA’s) with the Threshers. Nolan battled the injury bug last season but has bounced back to show an overall skillset that has gotten folks attention.

Griffin Burkholder - in his first extended action this season the 20 year old outfielder has shined - he’s posted a .264/.364/.429 slash line in 21 games (100 PA’s) with 6 doubles, a triple, 2 home runs and 11 RBIs. Griffin has driven the ball with authority which is something we’ve previously only seen in practice sessions - in his previous two pro seasons he’s been hampered by hamstring issues which has extremely limited his game time. Now that’s seemingly behind him and with a continuing strengthening program structured to keep him on the field he’s able to show off a vast array of baseball talent. Has the ability to climb all the way to the top rung.

Juan Villavicencio - 21 year old left handed hitting infielder has also battled thru injuries the past couple seasons - has pop - 3 doubles, 3 triples and 5 home runs with 18 RBIs in 118 plate appearances - respectable .255/.347/.490 slash line. Is a solid middle infield defender that teamed with Starlyn Caba on the backfields in 2024 - saw him play in person multiple times - has an overall skill set to advance.

Tanner Gresham - an under the radar hurler - he’s an Army reservist lieutenant who’s 24 years old and turned heads with his arsenal and pitching skills this spring - I wrote a spotlight article on him https://www.philliesbaseballfan.com/post/3-15-26-minor-league-spotlight-rhp-tanner-gresham.  In seven starts he’s posted a 3.57 ERA in 22.2 IP with 32 K’s and 10 walks. Fastball in the 93-97 mph range coupled with a slider, change, cutter and curve.

Brad Pacheco - 20 year old right handed pitcher who is a power arm. In seven appearances this season he’s posted a 3.67 ERA in 27 IP with 29 K’s and just 6 walks. His four seam fastball sits in the 94-98 mph range and he also throws a sinker, slider, change up, cutter and curve. I was there last season for his first start on the backfields in the FCL, nerves got the better of him that day and he struggled - the nerves have subsided and he’s one to watch - has the stuff to climb the ladder.

Ramon Marquez - the 20 year old right handed pitcher was slowed in spring training with a sore shoulder and has made just two starts as a result but he’s been outstanding in both - in fact he was named the Florida State League Pitcher of the week for his five scoreless innings last week. In nine innings to date he’s yet to allow an earned run, just four hits and has struck out 18 batters. He features a sinking fastball (93-97 mph), changeup, cutter and slider. Has a smooth delivery and consistently throws strikes - the changeup is outstanding - a right handed version of the one Christopher Sanchez throws. Ramon has added velocity since last summer as well - the kid from Mexico is legit - definitely have something here.

Just Sayin 😎

Happy Day, Happy Baseball ⚾️

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