9/23/26 : Home Run Tallies
With various reports raising the inference that since minor league home run totals were up this season the baseball has been altered I thought I’d dig a little deeper into the data. What I discovered is that indeed home run tallies are higher this season but the prior two seasons were remarkably low - I pulled data for six consecutive years - 2026 aligns closer to years 2021 to 2023. Perhaps if there was a baseball alteration in occurred in 2024 and 2025 and this season was more of an alignment to where things were before, who truly knows … just sayin 🥸🤔.
Here’s my findings.
Data by Levels :
AAA level :
At this level the Major League baseball is used. There are two leagues (International and Pacific).
Here’s the combined two league data for the past six years :
2026 - 5,014 HR’s - AVG of 2.3 per game and one hit per every 34 plate appearances
2025 - 4,922 HR’s - AVG of 2.2 per game and one hit per every 35 plate appearances
2024 - 5,150 HR’s - AVG of 2.3 per game and one hit per every 33 plate appearances
2023 - 5,583 HR’s - AVG of 2.5 per game and one hit per every 31 plate appearances
2022 - 5,341 HR’s - AVG of 2.4 per game and one hit per every 32 plate appearances
2021 - 4,761 HR’s - AVG of 2.5 per game and one hit per every 31 plate appearances
Very consistent.
For levels Rookie to AA a minor league baseball is used - it is the same baseball for all of these levels.
AA level :
I gathered data for all three leagues (Eastern, Southern and Texas).
2026 - 3,524 HR’s - AVG of 2.3 per game and one hit per every 33 plate appearances
2025 - 2,363 HR’s - AVG of 1.6 per game and one hit per every 48 plate appearances
2024 - 2,504 HR’s - AVG of 1.7 per game and one hit per every 45 plate appearances
2023 - 3,125 HR’s - AVG of 2.1 per game and one hit per every 37 plate appearances
2022 - 3,422 HR’s - AVG of 2.2 per game and one hit per every 34 plate appearances
2021 - 2,877 HR’s - AVG of 2.2 per game and one hit per every 34 plate appearances
While home runs are up this season as compared to last the outlier years are 2024 and 2025 when home runs were significantly lower - this year’s totals are much more in line with 2021 to 2023 - in fact 2026 is very close to 2022.
High A level :
I gathered data for all three leagues (Midwest, Northwest and South Atlantic).
2026 - 3,535 HR’s - AVG of 2.3 per game and one hit per every 34 plate appearances
2025 - 2,051 HR’s - AVG of 1.3 per game and one hit per every 57 plate appearances
2024 - 2,352 HR’s - AVG of 1.5 per game and one hit per every 50 plate appearances
2023 - 2,650 HR’s - AVG of 1.7 per game and one hit per every 44 plate appearances
2022 - 2,927 HR’s - AVG of 1.9 per game and one hit per every 40 plate appearances
2021 - 2,074 HR’s - AVG of 1.9 per game and one hit per every 39 plate appearances
At this level there’s a bigger jump in home runs this season with again 2024 and 2025 being low level outliers - while the 2021 to 2023 averages at this level aren’t as aligned as the AA level is to the 2026 tallies they are significantly closer than 2024 and especially 2025.
Low A level :
I gathered data for all three leagues (California, Carolina and Florida State).
2026 - 2,276 HR’s - AVG of 1.9 per game and one hit per every 40 plate appearances
2025 - 1,390 HR’s - AVG of 1.2 per game and one hit per every 65 plate appearances
2024 - 1,511 HR’s - AVG of 1.3 per game and one hit per every 60 plate appearances
2023 - 1,647 HR’s - AVG of 1.4 per game and one hit per every 55 plate appearances
2022 - 1,912 HR’s - AVG of 1.6 per game and one hit per every 47 plate appearances
2021 - 2,022 HR’s - AVG of 1.7 per game and one hit per every 45 plate appearances
Again the trend where 2024 and 2025 are lower as compared to the other years.
Rookie level :
I gathered data for all three leagues (DSL, FCL and AZL).
2026 - 2,128 HR’s - AVG of 1.2 per game and one hit per every 63 plate appearances
2025 - 1,667 HR’s - AVG of 0.9 per game and one hit per every 83 plate appearances
2024 - 1,457 HR’s - AVG of 0.8 per game and one hit per every 92 plate appearances
2023 - 1,817 HR’s - AVG of 1.0 per game and one hit per every 74 plate appearances
2022 - 1,803 HR’s - AVG of 0.9 per game and one hit per every 75 plate appearances
2021 - 1,615 HR’s - AVG of 0.9 per game and one hit per every 78 plate appearances
Combined Rookie to AA level :
2026 - 11,463 HR’s - AVG of 1.9 per game and one hit per every 40 plate appearances
2025 - 7,471 HR’s - AVG of 1.2 per game and one hit per every 61 plate appearances
2024 - 7,824 HR’s - AVG of 1.3 per game and one hit per every 58 plate appearances
2023 - 9,239 HR’s - AVG of 1.5 per game and one hit per every 49 plate appearances
2022 - 10,064 HR’s - AVG of 1.6 per game and one hit per every 46 plate appearances
2021 - 8,588 HR’s - AVG of 1.6 per game and one hit per every 46 plate appearances
Players Data :
I reviewed each organization’s data by year for their affiliates on Baseball Reference gathering the number of players who hit 20 or more home runs and whether they did so exclusively at the AAA level hitting the Major League Baseball. Admittedly I would miss players who switched organizations during the season and hit 20 or more combined homers but that’s likely a minimal count - I did include Kameron Misner for 2026 - he did that with the Royals and Phillies.
2026 - 166 players with 20 or more home runs - 23 did so exclusively at the AAA level
2025 - 60 players with 20 or more home runs - 24 did so exclusively at the AAA level
2024 - 73 players with 20 or more home runs - 31 did so exclusively at the AAA level
2023 - 125 players with 20 or more home runs - 48 did so exclusively at the AAA level
2022 - 140 players with 20 or more home runs - 32 did so exclusively at the AAA level
2021 - 114 players with 20 or more home runs - 25 did so exclusively at the AAA level
As an analyst who used to work for me was fond of saying “Tis only data Steve” - it’s up to the judgment of the observer to ascertain the comparative value or cause - just sayin.
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